飞跃原野_covid如何刺激中国机器人的伟大飞跃

飞跃原野

June 25th 2020, The Economist | By Invitation | The world after covid-19

2020年6月25日，《经济学人》 | 通过邀请| covid-19之后的世界

The pandemic is accelerating a shift towards people-less companies that will eventually characterize business everywhere.

大流行病正在加速向无人的公司转变，这些公司最终将成为各地业务的特征。

DURING THE SARS crisis almost 20 years ago, shops in Beijing were completely closed. It forced one retailer, Jingdong Century Trading Co, to try its luck online. That retailer was JD.com, today one of China’s e-commerce giants. Fast forward to 2020. Amid the covid-19 crisis, JD.com managed a 20% spike in sales with the help of a new, automated warehouse that can process more than 1.5m orders a day. In Wuhan it delivered packages using robots and drones. It plans to open 1,000 automated restaurants this year across China.

在SARS危机期间，大约20年前，北京的商店已完全关闭。它迫使一家零售商京东世纪贸易有限公司在网上尝试运气。那家零售商是京东，如今是中国的电子商务巨头之一。快进到2020年。在covid-19危机中，京东借助新的自动化仓库成功实现了20％的销售激增，该仓库每天可以处理超过150万个订单。在武汉，它使用机器人和无人机运送包裹。它计划今年在中国开设1000家自动化餐厅。

The efforts are representative of a broader shift amid the pandemic towardsautomation, artificial intelligence and digitization. The Chinese economy isundergoing a great robotic leap forward, as it removes human touch-points — literally — in its operations. Online businesses, algorithms and automation save costs, boost efficiency and protect public health. Though the shift predates covid-19, the crisis has accelerated it. Social distancing via automation will have wide-ranging implications. As goes China, so may go business everywhere.

这些努力代表了大流行向自动化，人工智能和数字化迈进的广泛转变。中国经济正在经历巨大的机器人飞跃，因为它从字面上消除了运营中的人为接触点。在线业务，算法和自动化可节省成本，提高效率并保护公共健康。尽管转变发生在covid-19之前，但危机加剧了危机。通过自动化实现社会疏离将产生广泛的影响。和中国一样，各地都有可能开展业务。

People used to expect to interact with other people to get things done. No longer. Much work can be largely handed over to a combination of software and robotics. That’s true for blue-collar jobs in health care, food service, delivery, manufacturing, logistics, transport and education. And it is increasingly happening for back-offce white-collar jobs in finance, customer service, sales, human resources, law and accounting.

人们过去常常期望与他人互动以完成任务。不再。许多工作可以很大程度上移交给软件和机器人技术的结合。对于医疗保健，食品服务，送货，制造，物流，运输和教育方面的蓝领工作来说，确实如此。在金融，客户服务，销售，人力资源，法律和会计等后台白领职位中，这种情况正越来越多地发生。

Historically, automation tends to happen when economic difficulties coincidewith maturing technologies. Companies feel they need to cut costs by slashingjobs and trying out new technologies. And once a company has replaced anemployee with a robot and proven its efficacy, it is unlikely to go back. Robotsdon’t get sick. They don’t strike. They don’t demand higher wages for dangerous jobs. In fact, they are ideal for dangerous jobs, which in a pandemic is any job that requires interaction with people. It is no wonder that David Autor, an economist at MIT, calls the covid-19 pandemic and economic crisis “an automation-forcing event”.

从历史上看，自动化往往在经济困难与技术成熟同时发生时发生。公司认为他们需要通过削减工作量和尝试新技术来削减成本。一旦公司用机器人代替了员工并证明了它的功效，就不可能回头了。机器人不要生病。他们不罢工。他们不要求更高的工资从事危险的工作。实际上，它们是危险工作的理想选择，在大流行中，危险工作是需要与人互动的任何工作。难怪麻省理工学院的经济学家戴维·奥托(David Autor)将19流行性大流行和经济危机称为“强制自动化事件”。

China is uniquely positioned to lead the world in the automation economy.Though the country has a large workforce, the cost of labour has increased tenfold in the last 20 years and is now more than twice as high as Vietnam’s. As the workshop of the world, it has an incentive to automate its manufacturing sector, which enjoys a lead on high-quality products. China is now the world’s largest market for industrial robotics and the fastest-growing, surging by 21% to $5.4bn in 2018. This represents a third of global sales. As a result, Chinese companies are developing a leg-up on the world in terms of how to work with metallic colleagues.

尽管中国拥有庞大的劳动力队伍，但其在自动化经济领域处于世界领先地位的独特地位，但劳动力成本在过去20年中增长了十倍，如今已是越南的两倍以上。作为世界各地的作坊，它有动力使其制造业自动化，而后者在高质量产品方面处于领先地位。中国现在是全球最大的工业机器人市场，也是增长最快的市场，2018年增长了21％，达到54亿美元，占全球销售额的三分之一。结果，中国公司在如何与金属同事合作方面正在世界范围内发展。

This has spilled over to domains beyond manufacturing. When the pandemicwas spreading rapidly in Wuhan in February and the massive HuoshenshanHospital was built in ten days, a fleet of robots was scurrying inside fordisinfecting and delivering medical supplies. These machines are used acrossChina in schools, hospitals and commercial buildings. Keenon, a roboticscompany in Shanghai, has developed an autonomous vehicle to disinfect areas, using a combination of LIDAR, machine vision and sensors.

这已经蔓延到了制造业以外的领域。当大流行在2月份在武汉Swift蔓延，庞大的火神山医院在10天之内建成时，一群机器人蜂拥而至，消毒和运送医疗用品。这些机器在中国各地的学校，医院和商业建筑中都有使用。上海的机器人公司Keenon通过结合激光雷达，机器视觉和传感器开发了一种自动车辆，用于消毒区域。

Recently, when I was in quarantine at home in Beijing, all of my e-commercepackages and food were delivered by a robot in my apartment complex. The item would be placed on a sturdy, wheeled creature resembling R2D2. It could wirelessly summon the elevator, navigate autonomously to my door and then call my phone to announce its arrival. I could then take the delivery and the bot would return to reception.

最近，当我在北京的家中隔离时，我所有的电子商务包装和食物都是由我的公寓大楼里的一个机器人运送的。该物品将被放置在一个坚固的轮式生物上，类似于R2D2。它可以无线召唤电梯，自动导航到我的门，然后打电话给我的电话宣布到达。然后我可以收货，机器人将返回接待处。

A food-delivery firm, Meituan, has introduced a “zero contact” service, where the meals are delivered to specific drop-off points, but the driver and customer need never interact. The company is testing self-driving delivery vehicles. WeChat, a popular social-media and payment platform, has developed a system for people to use their phone to read a restaurant menu, order a meal and settle the bill, with either a human or a robot delivering the food to the table. Robot servers today are both gimmicks and safety measures, but tomorrow they may be a normal part of table service for most restaurants, save for posh ones.

美团一家食品配送公司推出了“零接触”服务，将餐点运送到特定的下车地点，但驾驶员和顾客之间永远不需要互动。该公司正在测试自动驾驶交付车辆。微信是一个流行的社交媒体和支付平台，它开发了一种系统，人们可以使用电话来读取餐厅菜单，点餐和结算账单，而人工或机器人可以将食物送到餐桌上。如今，机器人服务器既是头，也是安全措施，但明天，对于大多数餐馆来说，它们可能已成为餐桌服务的正常部分，除了豪华的餐馆。

However, the impact of automation is likely to be higher for white-collar jobs in the short term. Although basic, routine tasks like assembly-line work are easy to automate, much manual labour is hard for robots. “Intelligent automation” in the 21st century will be different from the rudimentary physical automation of the 20th century, since today’s robots require drawing together mechanical engineering, AI for perception and fine-motor manipulation. Yet as white-collar employees work from home during the pandemic, everything happens online and all tasks are translated into data, it is a small step to have machines take over completely. Companies offering “robotic process automation” are experiencing a boom in sales since the crisis began.

但是，从短期来看，自动化对白领工作的影响可能更大。尽管诸如装配线工作之类的基本日常任务很容易实现自动化，但机器人却需要大量体力劳动。 21世纪的“智能自动化”将不同于20世纪的基本物理自动化，因为当今的机器人需要将机械工程，人工智能用于感知和精细电机操纵结合在一起。然而，在大流行期间白领员工在家工作时，所有事情都在线发生，所有任务都转换为数据，这是使机器完全接管工作的一小步。自危机开始以来，提供“自动化流程自动化”的公司的销售正在Swift增长。

I’ve seen these trends develop as a technology investor in China — and had afront-row seat during lockdown. Zhuiyi Technology, a company in our portfolio, develops software for call-centre automation. During the pandemic, the credit card department of a large Chinese bank used the system to call its customers, managing 350,000 calls a day, or the equivalent of 1,200 human customerservice representatives. These conversational bots not only reduce cost, but also improve customer satisfaction and boost revenue. The company has since expanded its range to include AI telemarketers, AI analysts, AI trainers, AI assistants and so on.

我已经看到这些趋势在中国作为技术投资者发展起来，并且在锁定期间排在前列。我们投资组合中的公司Zhuiyi Technology开发了用于呼叫中心自动化的软件。在大流行期间，一家大型中国银行的信用卡部门使用该系统呼叫其客户，每天管理35万次呼叫，相当于1200名人工客户服务代表。这些对话机器人不仅可以降低成本，而且可以提高客户满意度并增加收入。自那时以来，该公司的范围已扩大到包括AI电话推销员，AI分析师，AI培训师，AI助手等。

We can already see the contours of the post-covid business environment taking shape. Everything that can be cost-effectively automated will be, removing people from the process not just for pro t and performance but for health and safety. If robots and software were appealing before the pandemic, the reasons not to adopt the technologies are even thinner now, whether a vaccine against covid-19 is developed or not. Although automation changes some jobs and decimates others, many new jobs are created too. For example, the new digital infrastructure of data centers, 5G equipment, and software will need human workers, as will the operation and repair of robots. So will human-centric data collection and labelling, as the “fuel” that powers AI and facilitates an automation economy.

我们已经可以看到后共商业环境的轮廓正在形成。可以成本有效地自动化的一切都将使过程中的人员不仅出于保护和性能的考虑，而且出于健康和安全的考虑。如果机器人和软件在大流行之前很有吸引力，那么不管是否研发了针对covid-19的疫苗，现在不采用该技术的理由就更薄了。尽管自动化改变了一些工作并减少了其他工作，但也创造了许多新工作。例如，数据中心，5G设备和软件的新数字基础设施以及机器人的操作和维修将需要人工。以人为中心的数据收集和标记也将作为驱动AI并促进自动化经济的“燃料”。

Many sectors will be reimagined in the form of human-digital symbiosis. Ineducation, for example, AI will become the tutor and always-on instructor, while the human is the wise mentor and motivator. In healthcare, AI will be the accurate, targeted diagnosis engine that assists the human doctor, whocommunicates with patients and makes final decisions. The public and private sectors need to work together on the transition to the automation economy. They must experiment and establish the best practices to prepare the workforce and retrain those at risk of unemployment. China’s early adoption of automation technologies — and its successful transition from animpoverished agrarian economy to an industrial powerhouse — means itsexperience offers valuable lessons.

许多部门将以人与数字共生的形式重新想象。例如，教育将成为人工智能的导师和永远在线的导师，而人类则是明智的导师和激励者。在医疗保健领域，人工智能将是准确，针对性的诊断引擎，可协助与患者沟通并做出最终决定的人类医生。公共部门和私营部门需要共同努力，以实现向自动化经济的过渡。他们必须进行试验并建立最佳实践，以准备劳动力并重新培训面临失业风险的人。中国对自动化技术的早期采用，以及从贫困的农业经济向工业强国的成功过渡，意味着中国的经验提供了宝贵的经验教训。

After the second world war, American business practices became the globalstandard to which all companies around the world aspired. Accelerated by thepandemic, China will be the economy that drives automation, AI and roboticsdeep into businesses and industries, while showing the way for others to follow.

第二次世界大战后，美国的商业惯例成为全球所有公司所追求的全球标准。在大流行的加速下，中国将成为推动自动化，人工智能和机器人技术深入商业和行业的经济，同时为其他国家树立榜样。

Kai-Fu Lee is the chairman and chief executive of Sinovation Ventures in Beijing. A former executive at Google and Microsoft, he is the author of “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order” (HMH, 2018).

李开复 (Saivation Ventures)董事长兼首席执行官。他曾是Google和Microsoft的前高管，着有《 AI超级大国：中国，硅谷和新世界秩序》(HMH，2018年)的作者。

The article first appeared on The Economist: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2020/06/25/kai-fu-lee-on-how-covid-spurs-chinas-great-robotic-leap-forward

该文章首次出现在《经济学人》上： https ： //www.economist.com/by-invitation/2020/06/25/kai-fu-lee-on-how-covid-spurs-chinas-great-robotic-leap-前锋